Are the good times really over for good?
Recently, for the first time since 2012 we have seen the 5-year bond market climb back up over 2.0%. Based on amazing employment numbers and the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will raise rates on January 17, the bond market has continued a climb out of the basement and maybe running full steam uphill in response to a better economy.
Let’s look at the last 10-years of bonds and how they correlated to the 5-yr. fixed mortgage rate because it is still the choice of most Canadians as it is a stable place to build your home budgets around. In 2007 the 5-year bond was at 4.13% and the 5-year benchmark rate 6.65%. Follow the melt down that started to happen in 2008 the bond slowly but surely began to sink and by 2012 the 5-yr. bond was at 1.25% and the bench mark 5 yr. rate was at 5.29%. But wait we weren’t done; in 2015 the bond sunk all the way to .65% but the bench mark rate was still at 4.74%, if you took that rate at the branch you really paid too much as we were almost at 2.25% for standard feature 5 year fixed at that time.
So now turn the corner and we see that the bond is on its way back up. We come into 2018 with it having climbed all the way back to 2% almost an 8-year high and of course Governor Poloz has already had the bench mark at 4.99 so I don’t think it will be long before we see the bench mark reset again. Will it be long before the new qualifying numbers are 6% again, still some factors to watch, NAFTA, employment, world markets, price of tea in China, price of oil in Alberta.

Your Interest is My Only Interest

Iko 647-200-0723

Ask any mortgage broker and they can tell you that there are a handful of misconceptions that the public has about working with a mortgage broker. From questioning their credentials (we all are regulated and licensed with in our own province, and are constantly re-educating ourselves) to assuming that the broker does not have access to the same rate as the banks (we do in fact—plus access to even more lending options) mortgage brokers have heard it all!

With the recent changes to the B-20 guidelines taking full effect as of January 1, 2018 the mortgage landscape is changing and we firmly believe in keeping our clients educated and informed. With these changes, there have been a number of misconceptions that have come to light regarding mortgage professionals and their “limitations” and we felt it was time to address them:

Myth 1: Independent Brokers don’t have access to the rates the banks do.

Fact: Not true. Brokers have access to MORE rates and lenders than the bank. The bank brokers only have access to their rates-no other ones. A mortgage professional has access to:

• Tier 1 banks in Canada
• Credit Unions
• Monoline Lenders
• Alternative Lenders
• Private Lenders

This extensive network of lender options allows brokers to ensure that you are not only getting the sharpest rate, but that the mortgage product is also aligned with the client’s needs.

Myth 2: The consumer has to negotiate a rate with a lender directly.

Fact: Not true at all! Your mortgage professional will shop the market to find the best overall cost of borrowing for the client. Broker’s will look at all angles of the product to ensure that the client is getting one that will suit their unique and specific needs. Not once will the client be expected to shop their mortgage around or to speak to the lender. This is different from the bank where you are limited to only their rates and are left to negotiate with the bank’s broker—who is paid by the bank! We don’t know about you, but we would much rather have a broker negotiate on our behalf. Plus, they are FREE to use (see myth #6)

Myth 3: A Broker’s goal is to move the mortgage on each renewal.

Fact: A Mortgage Broker’s goal is to present multiple options to consumers so they can secure the optimal product for their specific and unique needs. This entails the broker looking at more than just the rate. A broker will look at:
• Prepayment options
• Costs of borrowing
• Portability
• Penalty to break
• Mortgage charges

And more. If the Broker determines that the current lender is the most ideal for their client at the time of renewal, then they will advise them to remain with that lender. The end goal of renewal is simple: provide clients the best ongoing, current advice at the time of origination and at the time of renewal

Myth 4: The broker receives a trailer fee if the client remains with the same lender at renewal.

Fact: This is on a case-to-case basis. At times, there is a small fee given to the broker if a client opts to renew with their current lender. This allows for accountability between the lender, broker, and customer in most cases. However, this is not always the case and the details of each renewal will vary.

Myth 5: If a Broker moves a mortgage to a new lender upon time of renewal then the full mortgage commission is received by the broker, allowing the broker to obtain “passive income” by constantly switching clients over.

Fact: Let’s clarify: If a client chooses to move their mortgage at renewal after a broker presents them with the best options, then it is in fact a new deal. By being a new deal, this means that the broker has all the work associated with any new file at that time. It is the equivalent of a brand-new mortgage and the broker will have to do the correct steps and work associated with it.

A second point of clarification-although the broker will earn income on this switch, the income (in most cases) is paid by the financial institution receiving the mortgage, NOT the client.

Myth 6: It costs a client more to renew with a mortgage broker.

Fact: Completely false. Clients SAVE MONEY when they work with a mortgage broker at . A broker has access to a variety of lenders and can offer discounts that the bank can’t. Additionally, most mortgage brokers offer continuous advice and information to their clients. Working with a broker is not a “one and done” deal as it is a broker’s goal to keep their clients informed, educated, and well-versed as to what is happening in the industry and how it will affect them. When you work with a broker instead of the bank, you not only get the best mortgage for you, but you also have access to a wealth of industry knowledge continuously.

Mortgage Brokers are a dedicated group of individuals who work directly for the client, not the lenders or the bank. Brokers are problem-solvers, advisors and honourable individuals. We work hard to give our clients the best that we can in an industry that constantly is evolving and changing.

Your Interest is my Only Interest

Feel free to call any time 647-200-0723

There have been a lot of changes in the mortgage market over the past few months so many Canadian’s plans regarding home-ownership may have shifted quite a bit from last year.

First, new qualification rules came to pass in October where even though actual contract rates are sitting at about 2.79% all Canadians have to now qualify at the Bank of Canada Benchmark rate of 4.64% to prove payments can still be met when rates go up in the future. That has taken about 20% of people’s purchase power out of the equation.

The second round of rules were implemented at the end of November with the government requiring banks to carry more of the cost or lending having to do with how they utilize mortgage insurance and the level of capital they have to have on reserve. This means it is more costly for banks to lend so they are passing some of that cost to Canadians.

We now have a tiered rate pricing system based on whether you are “insurable” and meet new insurer requirement to qualify at 4.64% with a maximum 25-year amortization (CMHC, Genworth, Canada Guaranty are the 3 insurers in Canada) or are “uninsurable” where you may have more than 20% down but can’t qualify at the Benchmark rate or need an amortization longer than 25-years to qualify or are self-employed so can’t meet traditional income qualification requirements. Canadians who are uninsurable will be charged a premium to their rate of anywhere from 15-40bps. So your rate would go from 2.79% to 2.94% at the very least.

Then in BC there was the announcement of the BC HOME Partnership Program (BCHPP) in January. We have finally had some clarification on how this works but the benefits are not as grand as the BC Government would like them to appear.

The BCHPP is a tool to assist First Time Homebuyers supplement their down payment by the government matching what they have saved up to 5% of the purchase price. While this may help some clients bring more money to the table we have to factor a payment on that “loan” into the debt-servicing mix so they will actually qualify for less by way of a mortgage. They have more down payment but can not get as high a mortgage so it’s very close to a wash.

Lastly, as of mid January, CMHC announced they are increasing mortgage insurance premiums on March 17th. Genworth and Canada Guaranty are likely to follow. The insurance premiums are based on a percentage of the mortgage amount requested and how much you have to put down. For people with 5% down the premium will go from 3.60% to 4.00% and if you want to take advantage of the BCHPP program the premium will go from 3.85% up to 4.5%

What does this all mean? Overall it is more costly and more confusing to get a mortgage today than we have seen in many years. With the complexity of the new mortgage market, now more than ever buyers need someone with extensive knowledge to help them sort through their options – such as your local Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional.

If we can be of assistance to you or someone you know, please do not hesitate to contact me

Iko Maurovski

647-200-0723

Every once in a while, a bank will advertise a cash back mortgage. It sounds great but there are a few things to consider.
When you purchase a home, you may find that you need some extra cash. You may want to renovate, purchase some furniture, or start on building a fence or landscaping.. Fortunately, some Canadian lenders offer mortgages that give you a cash back rebate when you take out your mortgage.
With a cash back mortgage, your lender advances you a cash lump sum when your mortgage closes. The most common sum you receive is 5% of your mortgage amount, but it’s possible to get between 1% and 5% depending on the lender you choose. Note that you receive these funds when the mortgage closes. The funds cannot be used for your down payment, however if you borrowed your down payment you could use the funds to pay back the loan.
This sounds like a great idea but there are some down sides to this type of mortgage. First- you will pay about 1.5% higher interest rate for the duration of the mortgage term. Usually this is a five-year term and if you take a look at how much extra interest you are paying you will find that it takes you five years to pay this sum back to the lender.
Another point to consider is that Canadians move on average every three years. What if you have to break the mortgage? In that case, you owe the lender the usual three months interest or Interest Rate Differential (IRD) as well as the balance of the cash back balance. This could be a very pricey move. If your lender allows it , it’s best to port your mortgage to your new home to avoid the double hit of the penalty and paying the cash back.
A cash back mortgage is a great option but it’s not for everyone. Be sure to tell your mortgage broker if it’s at all possible that you will have to move before your mortgage term is over so that he or she can advise you on what your penalties would be. If you have any questions, contact

Iko Maurovski

647-200-0723

Approximately 32 per cent of Canadians are in a variable rate mortgage, which with rates effectively declining steadily for the better part of the last ten years has worked well.

Recent increases triggers questions and concerns, and these questions and concerns are best expressed verbally with a direct call to your independent mortgage expert – not directly with the lender. There are nuances you may not think to consider before you lock in, and that almost certainly will not be primary topics for your lender.

Over the last several years there have been headlines warning us of impending doom with both house price implosion, and interest rate explosion, very little of which has come to fruition other than in a very few localised spots and for short periods of time thus far.

Before accepting what a lender may offer as a lock in rate, especially if you are considering freeing up cash for such things as renovations, travel or putting towards your children’s education, it is best to have your mortgage agent review all your options.

And even if you simply wanted to lock in the existing balance, again the conversation is crucial to have with the right person, as one of the key topics should be prepayment penalties.

In many fixed rate mortgage, the penalty can be quite substantial even when you aren’t very far into your mortgage term. People often assume the penalty for breaking a mortgage amounts to three months’ interest payments, which in the case of 90% of variable rate mortgages is correct. However, in a fixed rate mortgage, the penalty is the greater of three months’ interest or the interest rate differential (IRD).

The ‘IRD’ calculation is a byzantine formula. One designed by people working specifically in the best interests of shareholders, not the best interests of the client (you). The difference in penalties from a variable to a fixed rate product can be as much as a 900 per cent increase.

The massive penalties are designed for banks to recuperate any losses incurred by clients (you) breaking and renegotiating the mortgage at a lower rate. And so locking into a fixed rate product without careful planning can mean significant downside.

Keep in mind that penalties vary from lender to lender and there are different penalties for different types of mortgages. In addition, things like opting for a “cash back” mortgage can influence penalties even more to the negative, with a claw-back of that cash received way back when.

Another consideration is that certain lenders, and thus certain clients, have ‘fixed payment’ variable rate mortgages. Which means that the payment may at this point be artificially low, and locking into a fixed rate may trigger a more significant increase in the payment than expected.

There is no generally ‘correct’ answer to the question of locking in, the type of variable rate mortgage you hold and the potential changes coming up in your life are all important considerations. There is only a ‘specific-to-you’ answer, and even then – it is a decision made with the best information at hand at the time that it is made. Having a detailed conversation with the right people is crucial.

It should also be said that a poll of 33 economists just before the recent Bank of Canada rate increase had 27 advising against another increase. This would suggest that things may have moved too fast too soon as it is, and we may see another period of zero movement. The last time the Bank of Canada pushed the rate to the current level it sat at this level for nearly five full years.

Life is variable, perhaps your mortgage should be too.

As always, if you have questions about locking in your variable mortgage, or breaking your mortgage to secure a lower rate, or any general mortgage questions.

Your Interest is my Only Interest

Iko

647-200-0723

As many of you may remember, this past October the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) issued a revision to Guideline B-20 . The changes will go into effect on January 1, 2018 but lenders are expecting to roll this rules out to their consumers between December 7^th – 15^th, and will require conventional mortgage applicants to qualify at the Bank of Canada’s five-year benchmark rate or the customer’s mortgage interest rate +2%, whichever is greater.

OSFI is implementing these changes for all federally regulated financial institutions. What this means is that certain clients looking to purchase a home or refinance their current mortgage could have their borrowing power reduced.

 What to expect

It is expected that the average Canadian’s home purchasing power for any given income bracket will see their borrowing power and/or buying power reduced 15-25%. Here is an example of the impact the new rules will have on buying a home and refinancing a home.

 Purchasing a new home

When purchasing a new home with these new guidelines, borrowing power is also restricted. Using the scenario of a dual income family making a combined annual income of $85,000 the borrowing amount would be:

Refinancing a mortgage

A dual-income family with a combined annual income of $85,000.00. The current value of their home is $700,000. They have a remaining mortgage balance of $415,000 and lenders will refinance to a maximum of 80% LTV. The maximum amount available is: $560,000 minus the existing mortgage gives you $145,000 available in the equity of the home, provided you qualify to borrow it.

In transit purchase/refinance

If you have a current purchase or refinance in motion with a federally regulated institution you can expect something similar to the below. A note, these new guidelines are not being recognized by provincially regulated lenders (i.e credit unions) but are expected to follow these new guidelines in due time.

Source (TD Canada Trust)

These changes are significant and they will have different implications for different people. Whether you are refinancing or purchasing, these changes could potentially impact you. We advise that if you do have any questions, concerns or want to know more that you contact me

Iko 647-200-0723

imaurovski@gmail.com

The question most often asked: ‘Is my mortgage portable?’

The answer most often given: ‘Yes.’

This answer is increasingly wrong.

In reality you qualify to move ~80% of the balance… maybe.

If you are thinking of:

• Moving (upsizing or downsizing)
• Locking a variable-rate mortgage into a fixed-rate product

… you would be well served to keep reading.

The above question is incomplete. To be fair, you would have no way of knowing this. The person answering it should know better than to give you a one-word answer.

The proper question: ‘Do I need to re-qualify for my current mortgage to move to a new home?’

The proper answer: ‘Yes, your mortgage is portable, but only if you re-qualify under today’s new and more stringent guidelines.’

The person answering the portability question should only be your Dominion Lending Centres mortgage specialist. They alone can answer the question accurately, and only with a complete and updated application, along with all supporting documents to confirm the maximum mortgage amount under current guidelines.

Too many clients learn this lesson the hard way. They sell their existing property before speaking with their Mortgage Broker, and in some cases they also enter binding purchase agreements under the mistaken assumption they can just port their mortgage.

Key Point – Do not ask if your mortgage is portable (99% of them are). Ask if you currently qualify to move your mortgage to a new property.

Key Point – The federal government has created a dynamic in which there are two different qualifying rates for mortgage approvals. And the one used yesterday to get you into a five-year fixed rate mortgage is not always the same one that is used if you want to move that same mortgage to a new home down the street, even just one day later.

Key Point – One day into your five-year fixed mortgage, you are now subject to the stress test. In a nutshell, the stress test applies the higher qualifying rate and effectively reduces your maximum mortgage approval by ~20%.

Meaning that you may only be able to port 80% of the current balance to another property… just one day later.

So, what’s the fix?

The best fix – The government could add a simple sentence to their lending guidelines along the lines of ‘If a borrower qualified for their mortgage at the five-year contract rate at inception, then the borrower shall be allowed to re-qualify at that original rate when moving their mortgage to a new home.’

Currently this fix does not exist.

The current fix – Well it’s no big deal at all. You simply pay a penalty to break your current five-year fixed mortgage and then apply for a new five-year fixed mortgage. Said penalty amount? Typically, around 4.5% of the mortgage balance – i.e., a $14,000 penalty on a $300,000 mortgage balance.

Seems reasonable, right?

It’s entirely unreasonable. This is a horrible ‘fix’, because it is not a fix at all. If you bought with 5% down, and then a few months later were transferred to another province and had no choice but to move, this represents your entire down payment vanishing due to an oversight by the federal regulators.

If you have been personally caught in this ‘portability trap,’ it felt more like total devastation than it did ‘anecdotal’. And by all means you should make your voice heard. Share your story with via www.tellyourmp.ca

Your Interest is my Only Interest

Iko 647-200-0723

Being fully pre-approved means that the lender has agreed to have you as a client (you have a pre-approval certificate) and the lender has reviewed, approved ALL your income and down payment documents (as listed below) prior to you going house hunting. Many bankers will say you’re approved, you go out shopping and then they sorry you’re not approved due to some factor. Get a pre-approval in writing! It should have your amount, rate, term, payment and date it expires.

Excited! Of course you are, you are venturing into your first or possibly your next biggest loan application and investment of you life.

What documents are required to APPROVE your mortgage?

Being prepared with the RIGHT DOCUMENTS when you want to qualify your mortgage is HUGE; just like applying for a job or going for a job interview. Come prepared or don’t get hired (or in this case, declined).

Why is this important?

You can have a leg up against the competition when buying your dream home as you can have very short timeline (ie: 1 day to confirm vs 5-7 days) for “financing subjects.”
Think? You’re the seller and you know the buyer doesn’t have to run around finding financing and the deal may fall apart? This is the #1 reason deals DO fall apart. You will likely get the home over someone who isn’t fully approved and has to have financing subjects. The home is yours and nobody’s time is wasted.

If you just walked into the bank, filled an application and gave little or no documents, and got a rate – you have a RATEHOLD. This is NOT a pre-approval. This guarantees nothing and you will be super stressed out when you put an offer in, have 5-7 days to remove financing subjects and you need to get any or all of the below documents. That’s not fun is it? Use a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage specialist ALWAYS. We don’t cost you anything!

When you get a full pre-approval, you as a person(s) are approved; ie: the bank’s done their work of reviewing (takes a few days) to call your employer, review your documents, etc. All we have to do is get the property approved, which takes a day or two. Much less stress, fastest approval…faster into your home!

Here is exactly the documents you MUST have (there is NO negotiation on these) to get your mortgage approved with ease. Key word here is EASE. Banks/Lenders have to adhere to rules, audit files and if you don’t have any of these or haven’t been requested to supply them…a big FLAG that your mortgage approval might be in jeopardy and you will be running around like a crazy person two days before your financing subject removal.

Read carefully and note the details of each requirement to prevent you from pulling your hair out later.

Here is the list for the “average” T4 full-time working person with 5-15% as their down payment (there is more for self employed, and part-time noted below):

Are you a Full-time Employee?

1. Letter of Employment from your employer, on company letterhead, that states: when you started, how much you make per hour or salary, how many guaranteed hours per week and, if you’re new, is there a probation. You can request this from your manager or HR department. This is very normal request that HR gets for mortgages.
2. Last 2 paystubs: must show all tax deductions, name of company and have your name on it.
3. Any other income? Child Support, Long Term Disability, EI, Foster Care, part-time income? Bring anything that supports it. NOTE: if you are divorced/separated and paying support, bring your finalized separation/divorce agreement. With some lenders, we can request a statutory declaration from lawyer.
4. Notice of Assessment from Canada Revenue Agency for the previous tax filed year. Can’t find it? You can request it from the CA to send it to you by mail (give 4-6 weeks for it though) or get it online from your CRA account.
5. T4’s for you previous year.
6. 90 day history of bank statement showing the money you are using to put down on your purchase. Why 90 days? Unless you can prove you got the money either from a sale of a house, car or other immediate forms of money (receipt required)…saved money takes time and the rules from the banks/government is 90 days. They just want to make sure you aren’t a drug dealer, borrowed the money and put it in your account or other fraud issues. OWN SOURCES = 90 days. BORROWED is fine, but must be disclosed. GIFT is when mom/dad give you money. Once you have an approval for “own sources” you can’t decide to change your mind and do gifted or borrowed. That’s a whole new approval.

Down payments
Own Sources: For example for “own sources”: if you are a first time buyer and your money is in RRSP’s then, have your last quarterly statement for the RRSP money. If your money is in three different savings account, you need to print off three months history with the beginning balance and end balance as of current. The account statements MUST have your NAME ON IT or it could be anyone’s account. I see this all the time. If it doesn’t print out with your name, print the summary page of your accounts. This usually has your name on it, list of your accounts and balances. Just think, the bank needs to see YOU have money in your (not your mom’s or grandparents) account.

GIFT: If mom/dad/grandparents are giving you money…then the bank needs to know this as the mortgage is submitted differently (this is called a GIFT).

If you are PART-TIME employee?
All of the above, except you will need to bring 3 years of Notice of Assessments. You need to be working for 2 years in the same job to use part-time income. You can have your Full-time job and have another part-time gig…you can use that income too (as long as it’s been 2 years).

If you are Self Employed?

• 2 years of your T1 Generals with Statement of Business Activities
• Statement of Business Activities.
• 3 years of CRA Notice of Assessments
• if incorporated: your incorporation license, articles of incorporation
• 90 day history of bank statement showing the money you are using to put down on your purchase

Going to the bank direct is such a big disservice to you. That is like walking into Ford and asking for a Mercedes or Toyota. As a broker: I am FREE! I work with ALL the banks and know ALL the rules. The bank you choose pays me to give you great service and a fantastic product. There are over 300 of them…so don’t sell yourself short.

Have you been approved for a mortgage and waiting for the completion date to come? Well, it is not smooth sailing until AFTER the solicitor has registered the new mortgage. Be sure to avoid these 10 things below or your approval status can risk being reversed!

1. Don’t change employers or job positions
Any career changes can affect qualifying for a mortgage. Banks like to see a long tenure with your employer as it shows stability. When applying for a mortgage, it is not the time to become self employed!

2. Don’t apply for any other loans
This will drastically affect how much you qualify for and also jeopardize your credit rating. Save the new car shopping until after your mortgage funds.

3. Don’t decide to furnish your new home or renovations on credit before the completion date of your mortgage
This, as well, will affect how much you qualify for. Even if you are already approved for a mortgage, a bank or mortgage insurance company can, and in many cases do, run a new credit report before completion to confirm your financial status and debts have not changed.

4. Do not go over limit or miss any re-payments on your credit cards or line of credits
This will affect your credit score, and the bank will be concerned with the ability to be responsible with credit. Showing the ability to be responsible with credit and re-payment is critical for a mortgage approval

5. Don’t deposit “mattress” money into your bank account
Banks require a three-month history of all down payment being used when purchasing a property. Any deposits outside of your employment or pension income, will need to be verified with a paper trail. If you sell a vehicle, keep a bill of sale, if you receive an income tax credit, you will be expected to provide the proof. Any unexplained deposits into your banking will be questioned.

6. Don’t co-sign for someone else’s loan
Although you may want to do someone else a favour, this debt will be 100% your responsibility when you go to apply for a mortgage. Even as a co-signor you are just as a responsible for the loan, and since it shows up on your credit report, it is a liability on your application, and therefore lowering your qualifying amount.

7. Don’t try to beef up your application, tell it how it is!
Be honest on your mortgage application, your mortgage broker is trying to assist you so it is critical the information is accurate. Income details, properties owned, debts, assets and your financial past. IF you have been through a foreclosure, bankruptcy, consumer proposal, please disclose this info right away.

8. Don’t close out existing credit cards
Although this sounds like something a bank would favour, an application with less debt available to use, however credit scores actually increase the longer a card is open and in good standing. If you lower the level of your available credit, your debt to credit ratio could increase and lowering the credit score. Having the unused available credit, and cards open for a long duration with good re-payment is GOOD!

9. Don’t Marry someone with poor credit (or at lease be prepared for the consequences that may come from it)

So you’re getting married, have you had the financial talk yet? Your partner’s credit can affect your ability to get approved for a mortgage. If there are unexpected financial history issues with your partner’s credit, make sure to have a discussion with your mortgage broker before you start shopping for a new home.

10. Don’t forget to get a pre-approval!
With all the changes in mortgage qualifying, assuming you would be approved is a HUGE mistake. There could also be unknown changes to your credit report, mortgage product or rate changes, all which influence how much you qualify for. Thinking a pre-approval from several months ago or longer is valid now, would also be a mistake. Most banks allow a pre-approval to be valid for 4 months, be sure to communicate with your mortgage broker if you need an extension on a pre-approval.

Your Interest is my Only Interest

Iko 647-200-0723

The Liberals will make public their long-awaited National Housing Strategy this week – specifically, how they will spend the $11.2 billion earmarked in the last federal budget.

Details on the strategy will be announced by social development minister Jean-Yves Duclos as early as Wednesday. But we already know the Liberals want to build more affordable housing, cut the level of chronic homelessness in half and repair existing affordable housing stock.

The focus on the most vulnerable is laudable. But the emphasis on social or affordable rental housing means that housing affordability for the vast majority of Canadians inevitably becomes a secondary consideration.

As a new report by the Macdonald Laurier Institute makes clear, social housing represents just 6 per cent of the market, while home owners make up the other 94 per cent.

The debate about how to get on the bottom rung of the housing ladder, and then how to cope with rising interest rates, has become a national pastime.

A Nanos Research poll for Bloomberg last week suggested 88 per cent of Canadians are concerned about the price of housing.

The MLI report, by former Conservative economic adviser Sean Speer and Jane Londerville, a retired University of Guelph professor who taught real estate finance, points out that Toronto and Vancouver have become two of the least affordable cities in the world, with Toronto prices jumping 33 per cent in 2016 alone to an average of $875,000 and prices in Vancouver rising to over $1 million on average.

The federal government has a minimal ability to grow housing supply – provinces and cities control land use regulation – but it can affect demand through a mix of public policies.

One of the most comprehensive but least understood ways Ottawa impacts the housing market is through the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, a federal entity created 70 years ago to provide low-cost mortgages and support for returning veterans.

These days, CMHC sells insurance to residential mortgage lenders to protect them against mortgage default. Any residential loan of more than 80 per cent of the value of the home must be insured.

On a 90- to 95-per-cent loan, homeowners saw fees rise to 4.5 per cent, up from 3.85 per cent. It’s still unclear whether this had much impact on the market but it bolstered CMHC’s bottom line to the point where it will be able to pay the federal government a special dividend of $4 billion over the next two years.

The premium rate charged by CMHC is one area where the government could take action by ensuring the Crown corporation charges just enough to cover its costs and risks, without penalizing first-time homebuyers, who are currently subsidizing government spending.

More likely, that revenue will be eyed a source of funds for more social housing spending in the new plan.

A look at mortgage arrears over the past quarter century suggests the risks — viewed by policy-makers through the lens of the 5-per-cent default rate in the U.S. during the financial crisis —  are, in any case, greatly overstated.

Ottawa’s most direct lever on housing demand is control of mortgage rules that stipulate the minimum downpayment on purchases; equity requirements for re-financing and maximum amortization periods.

Finance minister Bill Morneau has already used this mechanism to try to curb the market and there is speculation he may do so again.

We are a long way from the heady days of 2007, when buyers were allowed to buy a house with zero down and an amortization period of up to 40 years. Further tightening could block entry to the housing market at all for some first time buyers and the authors recommend Morneau stays his hand for now.

A further federal government policy lever on the housing market is fiscal policy.

The First Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit (to help defray transaction costs), the Home Buyers Plan (which allows individuals to borrow from their RRSPs to buy a house) and non-taxation of capital gains on the sale of a principal residence cost around $6.1 billion a year in foregone revenue.

Speer and Londerville recommend policy changes that encourage savings, higher down-payments and equity accumulation. That might include re-thinking the mortgage insurance model, for example, by reducing fees for first-time buyers.

Another suggestion is a savings vehicle similar to a Registered Education Savings Plan, where qualified households pay into a Tax-Free Savings Plan and receive a matching contribution from government that can be used as a downpayment.

The authors may be on thin ice when they suggest consolidating existing pro-ownership tax policies – any attempt to tax capital gains on home sales would probably lead mild-mannered suburbanites to take to the streets with pitchforks.

But the Liberals have committed to a review of all federal tax expenditures and it is conceivable that a new tax credit that helps defray the cost of buying a home could be designed in a revenue-neutral way.

Speer and Londerville say they welcome a National Housing Strategy to bring greater coherence to federal housing policy, which currently involves a large measure of simultaneous sucking and blowing.

Yet expectations should be measured.

Mathieu Filion, Duclos’ communications director, said the strategy will cover the “full continuum of the market.”

But the focus on affordable housing, rather than housing affordability, means there is likely to be more talk about building social housing units than easing the anxieties felt by almost every middle-class home-owner – and those working hard to join them.

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